ADP Jobs Preview: 104K Private Payroll Gain in July 2025 Signals Labor Market Resilience Before BLS Report

Key Takeaways

• Private payrolls surged by 104,000 in July, reversing June’s 23,000 loss .
• Leisure/hospitality (+46K) and financial activities (+28K) led gains; education/health services bled 38,000 jobs .
• Western states dominated hiring (+75K); the Northeast shed 18,000 positions .
• Wages held steady: job-stayers earned 4.4% more year-over-year; job-changers saw 7% bumps .
• The Fed faces pressure to delay rate cuts amid sticky wage growth and resilient labor demand .

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The Numbers Came In

The ADP Research Institute dropped its July report. 104,000 private jobs materialized. Economists expected 76,000. June’s loss got revised too, only 23,000 jobs vanished, not 33,000 . The optimists grinned. The doomsayers shuffled their feet.

Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, called it a “healthy economy.” Employers believe consumers will keep spending . The six-month moving average? 67,000. The lowest since the pandemic’s aftermath .

Table: ADP Revisions Snapshot

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Sectors: Winners and Losers

Leisure and hospitality roared back. Bars, hotels, resorts, 46,000 jobs added . People still drink. They still travel. Financial activities followed, banks, insurers, real estate firms hired 28,000 .

Construction hammered out 15,000 jobs. Factories added 7,000 . The goods-producing side held its ground.

Then the wreckage. Education and health services bled 38,000 jobs . Schools cut staff. Clinics tightened budgets. Professional services? A meager 9,000 gain .

Table: Sector Breakdown

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The Geography of Work

The West exploded. 75,000 new jobs, mostly in Mountain and Pacific states . California’s tech hubs? Arizona’s sunbelt sprawl? They hummed. The South added 43,000. Atlanta. Miami. Dallas.

The Midwest? 18,000 jobs. Steady. Unspectacular.

The Northeast collapsed. 18,000 jobs gone . New England took the hardest hit. Boston’s biotech labs? New York’s offices? Quiet.

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Who’s Hiring: Big Eats Small

Large companies, 500+ employees, slapped down 46,000 new jobs . Medium firms matched them. Another 46,000.

Small businesses? A whisper. 12,000 jobs total . Firms with 20-49 employees actually cut 10,000 positions . The little guy got squeezed.

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Paychecks: Stuck in Gear

Wage growth flatlined. Again. Job-stayers pocketed 4.4% more than a year ago. For the fourth straight month . Job-changers fared better, 7% raises .

Financial workers led. 5.1% gains. Construction and manufacturing? 4.5% and 4.6% .

Small firms paid worse. Just 2.6% raises for workers at companies with 1-19 employees .

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The Fed’s Headache

The Federal Reserve met the same day. Jerome Powell read the ADP report. He didn’t smile .

Markets wanted rate cuts. Two-thirds odds for September. Then the 104,000 jobs landed . Treasury yields climbed. Futures wobbled.

Richardson’s words hung in the air: “Employers believe consumers stay resilient” . The Fed’s dilemma? Cut rates to spur growth? Or wait, inflation loves wage growth.

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The BLS Shadow

Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report looms. Economists expect 100,000 jobs. Unemployment ticking to 4.2% .

ADP and BLS rarely match. June proved it, ADP showed losses; BLS found gains .

No one bets on consistency.

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What It Means for Tomorrow

104,000 jobs aren’t 2021’s frenzy. But they’re not recession numbers .

Leisure and hospitality thrive. People want fun. Education and health? They want funding.

The West rises. The Northeast fades. Big companies dominate.

The Fed watches wages. 4.4% isn’t surrender.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Why did ADP revise June’s job loss upward?

ADP updated June’s loss from -33,000 to -23,000 after reviewing additional payroll data . Revisions happen.

Do ADP’s numbers predict the BLS report?

No correlation exists . June’s ADP showed losses; BLS reported gains.

Which sectors are dying?

Education/health services shed 38,000 jobs in July, continuing a 2025 slump .

Where did wages grow fastest?

Financial activities workers saw 5.1% yearly pay hikes. Job-changers averaged 7% .

Did small businesses hire?

Barely. Firms with 1-19 employees added 22,000 jobs. Those with 20-49 employees cut 10,000 .

How will this impact Fed rate decisions?

Sticky wage growth (4.4% YoY) and hiring resilience reduce chances of imminent rate cuts .