ADP Jobs Preview: 104K Private Payroll Gain in July 2025 Signals Labor Market Resilience Before BLS Report
ADP Jobs Preview: 104K Private Payroll Gain in July 2025 Signals Labor Market Resilience Before BLS Report
Key Takeaways
- Private payrolls surged by 104,000 in July, reversing June’s 23,000 loss .
- Leisure/hospitality (+46K) and financial activities (+28K) led gains; education/health services bled 38,000 jobs .
- Western states dominated hiring (+75K); the Northeast shed 18,000 positions .
- Wages held steady: job-stayers earned 4.4% more year-over-year; job-changers saw 7% bumps .
- The Fed faces pressure to delay rate cuts amid sticky wage growth and resilient labor demand .
The Numbers Came In
The ADP Research Institute dropped its July report. 104,000 private jobs materialized. Economists expected 76,000. June’s loss got revised too, only 23,000 jobs vanished, not 33,000 . The optimists grinned. The doomsayers shuffled their feet.
Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, called it a “healthy economy.” Employers believe consumers will keep spending . The six-month moving average? 67,000. The lowest since the pandemic’s aftermath .
Table: ADP Revisions Snapshot
Sectors: Winners and Losers
Leisure and hospitality roared back. Bars, hotels, resorts, 46,000 jobs added . People still drink. They still travel. Financial activities followed, banks, insurers, real estate firms hired 28,000 .
Construction hammered out 15,000 jobs. Factories added 7,000 . The goods-producing side held its ground.
Then the wreckage. Education and health services bled 38,000 jobs . Schools cut staff. Clinics tightened budgets. Professional services? A meager 9,000 gain .
Table: Sector Breakdown
The Geography of Work
The West exploded. 75,000 new jobs, mostly in Mountain and Pacific states . California’s tech hubs? Arizona’s sunbelt sprawl? They hummed. The South added 43,000. Atlanta. Miami. Dallas.
The Midwest? 18,000 jobs. Steady. Unspectacular.
The Northeast collapsed. 18,000 jobs gone . New England took the hardest hit. Boston’s biotech labs? New York’s offices? Quiet.
Who’s Hiring: Big Eats Small
Large companies, 500+ employees, slapped down 46,000 new jobs . Medium firms matched them. Another 46,000.
Small businesses? A whisper. 12,000 jobs total . Firms with 20-49 employees actually cut 10,000 positions . The little guy got squeezed.
Paychecks: Stuck in Gear
Wage growth flatlined. Again. Job-stayers pocketed 4.4% more than a year ago. For the fourth straight month . Job-changers fared better, 7% raises .
Financial workers led. 5.1% gains. Construction and manufacturing? 4.5% and 4.6% .
Small firms paid worse. Just 2.6% raises for workers at companies with 1-19 employees .
The Fed’s Headache
The Federal Reserve met the same day. Jerome Powell read the ADP report. He didn’t smile .
Markets wanted rate cuts. Two-thirds odds for September. Then the 104,000 jobs landed . Treasury yields climbed. Futures wobbled.
Richardson’s words hung in the air: “Employers believe consumers stay resilient” . The Fed’s dilemma? Cut rates to spur growth? Or wait, inflation loves wage growth.
The BLS Shadow
Friday’s Bureau of Labor Statistics report looms. Economists expect 100,000 jobs. Unemployment ticking to 4.2% .
ADP and BLS rarely match. June proved it, ADP showed losses; BLS found gains .
No one bets on consistency.
What It Means for Tomorrow
104,000 jobs aren’t 2021’s frenzy. But they’re not recession numbers .
Leisure and hospitality thrive. People want fun. Education and health? They want funding.
The West rises. The Northeast fades. Big companies dominate.
The Fed watches wages. 4.4% isn’t surrender.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did ADP revise June’s job loss upward?
ADP updated June’s loss from -33,000 to -23,000 after reviewing additional payroll data . Revisions happen.
Do ADP’s numbers predict the BLS report?
No correlation exists . June’s ADP showed losses; BLS reported gains.
Which sectors are dying?
Education/health services shed 38,000 jobs in July, continuing a 2025 slump .
Where did wages grow fastest?
Financial activities workers saw 5.1% yearly pay hikes. Job-changers averaged 7% .
Did small businesses hire?
Barely. Firms with 1-19 employees added 22,000 jobs. Those with 20-49 employees cut 10,000 .
How will this impact Fed rate decisions?
Sticky wage growth (4.4% YoY) and hiring resilience reduce chances of imminent rate cuts .