Decoding the Resilient Consumer: A Suite of Retail Data Reveals Spending Shifts, Economic Trends, and Adaptive Shopping Behaviors in a Post-Pandemic Market
Decoding the Resilient Consumer: A Suite of Retail Data Reveals Spending Shifts, Economic Trends, and Adaptive Shopping Behaviors in a Post-Pandemic Market
Key Takeaways
- Consumer Optimism Rebounds: First quarter 2025 optimism matches late 2024 levels despite ongoing economic uncertainty
- Amazon Dominates Market Share: Captures 4.4% of total US consumer spending versus Walmart's 3%
- Private Label Surge: 54% of consumers increased private-label purchases in 2025, with 42% buying exclusively
- Off-Price Retail Growth: Steady increase in visits to discount retailers and thrift stores
- Digital Expectations Rise: Speed becomes baseline expectation for delivery and e-commerce
- M&A Investment Boom: 53% of retail executives plan moderate-to-major M&A investments in 2025
- Retail Sales Growth: July 2025 retail sales hit $726.3 billion, up 3.9% year-over-year
- Value-Driven Shopping: Consumers redirect spending from cautious to intentional consumption
The Numbers Don't Lie , Retail Sales Paint a Different Picture
The cash registers keep ringing. July 2025 retail sales reached $726.3 billion. Up 0.5 percent from June. Up 3.9 percent from July 2024. These aren't the numbers of a broken economy.
First quarter 2025 brought consumer optimism nearly matching end-of-2024 levels. Low unemployment propped this up. Steady job growth helped. Stable inflation sealed the deal. But optimism doesn't tell the whole story.
The three-month stretch from May through July 2025 showed 3.9 percent growth compared to the same period last year. June figures got revised upward , from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent growth. The Bureau of Economic Analysis doesn't make mistakes like that by accident.
Consumers found their footing. They stopped clutching their wallets like rosaries. But they didn't go back to the old ways either.
Current Retail Performance Metrics
The data shows something the headlines miss. Americans didn't stop spending. They started spending smarter. They learned something during those pandemic months locked inside their houses with nothing but Amazon delivery trucks for company.
Amazon and Walmart , The Two-Horse Race That Isn't Really Close
Amazon grabbed 4.4 percent of total US consumer spending in Q4 2023. Walmart managed 3 percent. Together they controlled roughly 7.4 percent of all retail spending. That's not competition. That's Amazon lapping Walmart on a quarter-mile track.
The numbers get more interesting when you dig into the details. Amazon, Walmart and Costco maintain high customer retention rates through deep brand loyalty. Dollar stores keep lower retention because their value-driven model attracts occasional and price-sensitive shoppers.
Greg Zakowicz from Omnisend called both Amazon and Walmart winners in 2024. Walmart took the long approach , building business to appeal to higher-income shoppers without pushing away their core base. Economic challenges helped this strategy work.
Walmart's furniture and home furnishings market share tells a different story. They hold 7.3 percent there. Amazon doesn't dominate every category. Yet.
Major Retailer Market Share Breakdown
- Amazon: 4.4% of total US consumer spending
- Walmart: 3.0% of total US consumer spending
- Combined Amazon + Walmart: 7.4% of all retail spending
- Walmart Furniture/Home: 7.3% category share
- Customer Retention: High for Amazon, Walmart, Costco; Low for dollar stores
The retention data exposes something retail executives don't want to admit. Loyalty comes from habit, not marketing campaigns. Amazon built better habits. Walmart kept their old ones alive.
People don't switch from Amazon because switching requires effort. People don't leave Walmart because Walmart never gives them a reason to leave. Dollar stores survive on desperation , when you need milk and everything else is closed.
Private Label Revolution , Store Brands Become the Real Brands
The 2024 Private Label Shopper Study found that 54% of consumers increased their private-label purchases in 2025, with 42% now buying these products exclusively. Store brands stopped being the cheap option. They became the smart option.
Consumers figured out something retailers knew all along , private label products often come from the same factories as name brands. Same assembly line. Different label. Lower price. The pandemic gave people time to notice.
Target's Good & Gather food line outsells half the national brands in their stores. Walmart's Great Value brand generates more revenue than most Fortune 500 companies. Amazon's AmazonBasics expanded beyond basics into everything.
The shift happened fast. Too fast for traditional CPG companies to respond. Procter & Gamble and Unilever built their business models on brand loyalty. Consumers decided brand loyalty wasn't worth the premium.
Private Label Growth Patterns
- 54% of consumers increased private-label purchases
- 42% buy private-label products exclusively
- Store brands generate higher margins for retailers
- Consumer perception shifted from "cheap" to "smart"
- Traditional CPG brands losing market share
Store brands win because they control the entire supply chain. No middleman taking a cut. No advertising budget eating profits. No celebrity endorsements inflating costs. Just products that work at prices that make sense.
Retailers love private labels because the margins multiply their profits. Consumers love them because the savings multiply their purchasing power. Traditional brands caught in the middle wonder what happened to customer loyalty.
Off-Price and Thrift , The New Mainstream Shopping
Placer.ai reported steady increases in visits to off-price retailers and thrift stores, at the expense of traditional clothing stores. Discount shopping lost its stigma somewhere between the first stimulus check and the last lockdown.
TJ Maxx and Marshall's stopped being places you went when you couldn't afford regular stores. They became places you went when you realized regular stores were ripping you off. The treasure hunt aspect made shopping fun again.
Thrift stores exploded. Not because people got poorer , because people got smarter. Why pay $80 for jeans when you can find the same brand for $12? The clothes don't know they're secondhand.
Generation Z drove this trend harder than anyone expected. They grew up with social media teaching them that experiences matter more than possessions. A $20 vintage jacket gets more Instagram likes than a $200 designer shirt.
Off-Price Retail Growth Indicators
- Steady visitor increase to TJ Maxx, Marshall's, Burlington
- Traditional clothing store traffic declining
- Thrift store revenue growing double-digits
- Gen Z leading the trend
- Social media driving vintage/secondhand appeal
The data doesn't capture the psychology behind the shift. Americans learned to find deals during the pandemic. Finding deals became a skill. Having that skill became a point of pride.
Department stores that charged full price for everything started looking foolish. Why pay retail when retail itself was negotiable? Off-price retailers proved that markup was mostly mythology.
Digital Expectations , Speed Became the New Currency
Consumers continue raising the bar. Speed becomes table stakes for delivery and e-commerce. Additionally, consumers add low cost, reliability, and the ability to make returns to their expectations. Amazon Prime trained an entire generation to expect everything in two days or less.
Same-day delivery stopped being impressive when everyone offered it. Next-day delivery became the minimum viable product. Two-day delivery felt slow. Three-day delivery felt broken.
The expectations multiplied beyond shipping. Website loading times. Checkout processes. Customer service responses. Everything had to happen faster than everything used to happen.
Social media ranks as consumers' least trusted source when making purchasing decisions. Yet social media platforms like TikTok Shop gained ground in retail. Trust and usage don't always correlate.
Digital Shopping Expectations (2025)
- Speed: Table stakes for all e-commerce
- Low cost: Non-negotiable requirement
- Reliability: Expected, not extra
- Easy returns: Must be hassle-free
- Social media: Low trust, high influence
The contradiction makes sense when you understand how people shop online. They don't trust social media for information. They use social media for discovery. Instagram shows them products. TikTok shows them products in action. But they research and buy somewhere else.
Digital natives expect digital solutions to analog problems. They want virtual try-ons for clothes. AR furniture placement for home goods. AI recommendations for everything else. The technology exists. Retailers who don't use it look ancient.
Investment Surge , Retailers Double Down on Scale
More than half (53%) of retail executives said they plan to make moderate-to-major investments in M&A in 2025 (versus 30% in 2024). These investments may be partly due to bankruptcy fears and the increasing costs of running a complex digital operation.
The merger wave isn't about growth. It's about survival. Running a retail operation in 2025 costs more than running one in 2020. Technology expenses multiplied. Labor costs increased. Real estate values shifted. Inventory management got complicated.
Small retailers can't compete with Amazon's logistics network. Medium retailers can't match Walmart's purchasing power. Large retailers buy smaller ones to eliminate competition and acquire capabilities.
M&A Investment Trends
- 53% of retail executives planning M&A in 2025
- Up from 30% in 2024
- Driven by bankruptcy fears
- Complex digital operation costs
- Scale requirements for competition
The bankruptcy fears are real. Retail failures accelerated during the pandemic. Supply chain disruptions exposed weak operations. Consumer behavior changes killed entire business models overnight.
Department stores that survived did so by becoming something else. Macy's became an events company that sells clothes. Nordstrom became a service company that sells luxury. JCPenney became a real estate play that happens to have inventory.
Retailers who can't afford to become something else get bought by retailers who can. The alternative is closing stores and liquidating assets. M&A looks attractive compared to bankruptcy court.
Consumer Behavior Patterns , From Panic to Purpose
Consumers redirect their spending to where it matters most, shifting from cautious to intentional consumption. The panic buying phase ended. The purposeful buying phase began.
More than half of consumers (58%) continue avoiding crowds, 52% avoid unnecessary travel, 46% spend less time inside stores and 45% dine out less often. These aren't temporary pandemic behaviors anymore. They're permanent lifestyle changes.
The data shows people learned new shopping habits and decided to keep them. Online grocery shopping. Curbside pickup. Buy online, pick up in store. These services existed before 2020 but nobody used them.
Post-Pandemic Shopping Behaviors (Still Active)
- 58% avoid crowds while shopping
- 52% avoid unnecessary travel
- 46% spend less time in physical stores
- 45% dine out less frequently
- Permanent adoption of contactless services
Inflation impacted households over the past 12 months. As a result, many reported spending more on groceries this year compared to last year, leading them to prioritize essential goods and seek out savings and promotions.
The grocery bills tell the real story. People spend more money on the same food. They buy less food for the same money. Both things can be true simultaneously when prices rise faster than wages.
Consumers adapted by changing where they shop and what they buy. Generic brands instead of name brands. Bulk purchases instead of individual items. Sales hunting instead of impulse buying. The adaptation became permanent because it worked.
Economic Resilience , The Consumer Who Wouldn't Break
The recovery in financial sentiment has yet to translate to stronger discretionary spending intentions so far in 2024. Consumers feel better about the economy but don't spend like they feel better.
This disconnect reveals something economists missed. Consumer confidence and consumer behavior became two different metrics. People can feel optimistic about the future while remaining cautious about the present.
The resilience came from learning. Americans learned to live with less during lockdowns. They learned to shop smarter during shortages. They learned to find deals during inflation. These lessons stuck.
Consumer Resilience Indicators
- Financial sentiment recovery ongoing
- Discretionary spending remains cautious
- Cost-saving behaviors normalized
- Price sensitivity increased permanently
- Value-seeking became standard practice
The percentage of respondents engaging in cost-saving behaviors at grocery stores remains in flux as many across the globe acclimate to a jump in prices. Cost-saving stopped being a behavior and became an identity.
Clipping coupons used to mean you couldn't afford not to clip coupons. Now clipping coupons means you're smart enough to clip coupons. The psychology shifted from shame to pride.
Americans proved they could maintain their standard of living while reducing their cost of living. That discovery changed everything. Why go back to paying more when paying less works just as well?
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How much of total US consumer spending do Amazon and Walmart control? A: Amazon captures 4.4% of total US consumer spending, while Walmart accounts for 3%. Together, they control approximately 7.4% of all retail spending in America.
Q: What percentage of consumers increased their private-label purchases in 2025? A: According to the 2024 Private Label Shopper Study, 54% of consumers increased their private-label purchases in 2025, with 42% now buying these products exclusively.
Q: Are post-pandemic shopping behaviors temporary or permanent? A: The behaviors appear permanent. More than half of consumers (58%) still avoid crowds, 52% avoid unnecessary travel, 46% spend less time in stores, and 45% dine out less frequently than before the pandemic.
Q: How much are retail executives investing in mergers and acquisitions? A: 53% of retail executives plan to make moderate-to-major investments in M&A in 2025, compared to just 30% in 2024, driven by bankruptcy fears and rising operational costs.
Q: What are current US retail sales figures? A: July 2025 retail sales reached $726.3 billion, representing a 0.5% increase from June and a 3.9% increase compared to July 2024.
Q: How has consumer trust in social media changed? A: Consumers report social media as their least trusted source for making purchasing decisions, despite platforms like TikTok Shop gaining ground in retail sales.
Q: What's driving the growth in off-price retail? A: Steady increases in visits to off-price retailers and thrift stores come at the expense of traditional clothing stores, driven by value-seeking behavior and changing attitudes toward secondhand shopping.
Q: Why are consumers shifting from cautious to intentional consumption? A: After building momentum through the first half of 2024, consumers now redirect spending to what matters most, focusing on purposeful purchases rather than panic buying or excessive caution.