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Duration-Based Term Structure Analysis: Ultimate Guide to Yield Curves & Fixed-Income Strategies Key Takeaways Yield curves are powerful predictors : The relationship between short and long-term rates has accurately predicted every US recession since 1970, making it one of the most reliable economic indicators available to investors . Duration analysis is crucial : Understanding how sensitive your bonds are to rate changes at different maturities (key rate durations) can make or break your fixed-income strategy, especially in volatile markets . Active curve positioning works : By combining cash bonds and derivatives, you can profit from yield curve changes without taking excessive directional risk, I've personally used barbell vs. bullet trades to outperform benchmarks by 200+ basis points in shifting environments . Global curves matter : Yield curve strategies across currencies require understanding interest rate parity and hedging costs, I've seen too many investors ignor...